⚙️ Hi Operator,

Going on a trip to Turkey, Santorini, and Vienna for the next three weeks.

I'll be that annoying tourist grilling local business owners about cross-border shipping costs (my family is thrilled).

Consider this my field research on the tariff apocalypse you've been messaging me about—I'll report back whether the rest of the world is laughing at our supply chain meltdowns or feeling the same pain.

- Rameel 

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How to find the REAL winners in Trump's tariff war

Inspired by 20+ conversations with COO’s

The greatest opportunities are hiding where no one's looking

My phone lit up like Times Square since Trump's tariff announcement. "We're screwed," texted one COO friend.

"Moving everything to Vietnam," messaged another Ecom buddy.

Meanwhile, I'm looking at the data and fighting the urge to reply: "You're all looking in the wrong direction."

We're living through the most disruptive trade environment in a century. U.S. tariffs have skyrocketed to an average of 24% - the highest since 1903 according to Yale University analysis.

But while most executives are panicking, I'm spotting gold mines in what looks like a minefield.

But here's where most operators get it catastrophically wrong:

They're all rushing to the same markets.

While everyone stampedes into Vietnam and Thailand, shrewd players are mapping the trade war's ripple effects – discovering markets getting unfair advantages that most companies are blind to.

This week, I'm going to show you exactly how to identify these overlooked arbitrage opportunities - and why the standard approach to market selection is suddenly obsolete in 2025's new tariff landscape.

The Market Selection Blindspot That's Costing You Millions

Let me tell you about an operator I know - my former client Dan.

Dan runs operations for a mid-sized consumer electronics manufacturer with about $120M in annual revenue. When Trump announced the first round of tariffs, Dan did what everyone else did: he looked at their largest competitors who had already expanded internationally and followed their playbook.

They chose Vietnam, which was already seeing heavy investment from companies diversifying away from China. It seemed like the obvious move - Vietnam was the #1 beneficiary of the first U.S.-China trade war.

Six months and $2.3M later, Dan's company had nothing to show for it but frustration, a stack of incomprehensible regulatory forms, and an executive team giving him the side-eye in every meeting.

Why? Because Dan fell into the Market Selection Blindspot:

He ignored the second-order effects of trade wars.

When Trump announced his sweeping tariffs this year, Vietnam got slapped with a staggering 46% tariff rate - far higher than most companies anticipated. Thailand is facing 37%, while other nations are dealing with rates between 32% and 49%.

As Reuters reported, "Southeast Asian nations reeled on Thursday as they were hit with some of President Donald Trump's heftiest tariffs, which now threaten the economies that have benefited from investment since he imposed levies on China during his first term."

While everyone's scrambling for the exits in Vietnam, I've been quietly mapping the new winners. Let me show you where.

The Tariff Arbitrage Matrix: Where the Real Opportunities Hide

Throw out your pre-2025 playbook. In this tariff-twisted landscape, conventional wisdom isn't just outdated – it's dangerous.

Here's my Tariff Arbitrage Matrix - a systematic approach to finding the unfairly advantaged territories that Trump's policies have inadvertently created:

Let me explain why this framework completely upends traditional market selection thinking.

1. Tariff Vulnerability (Weight: 5)

The first and most obvious factor is a country's current and projected tariff rate. But here's what most operators miss: it's not just about today's rates; it's about reading the political tea leaves to predict where Trump's tariff hammer falls next.

As reported by Reuters, current tariff levels are:

• China: 145%

• Vietnam: 46%

• Thailand: 37%

• European Union: 20%

• Indonesia: mid-30s

Countries actively negotiating with the Trump administration may secure significant reductions. Malaysia, for example, has announced it will not seek retaliatory tariffs and is "actively engaging with U.S. authorities to seek solutions that will uphold the spirit of free and fair trade." This diplomatic approach might pay dividends as negotiations continue.

2. Trade Deficit Exposure (Weight: 5)

This is the most overlooked yet critical factor. Trump has made reducing trade deficits his administration's economic obsession. According to the latest data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, the February 2025 trade deficits were:

• European Union: $30.9 billion

• China: $26.6 billion

• Mexico: $16.8 billion

• Vietnam: $12.4 billion

• Malaysia: $3.1 billion

• Brazil: $0.4 billion (SURPLUS)

Countries with smaller deficits or even trade surpluses with the U.S. face significantly lower risk of becoming tariff targets. This is why Brazil, with its small trade surplus, could be a genuine blindspot gold mine despite rarely appearing on standard market selection lists.

3. Supply Chain Integration (Weight: 4)

Even with favorable tariff treatment, a market is only viable if you can build an effective supply chain there. According to McKinsey research, "Countries such as Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam, are likely to play pivotal roles in this transformation, driven by their strategic location, skilled workforce, and favorable investment climates."

Malaysia, for example, is emerging as a specialized component producer in consumer electronics according to UN research, with robust manufacturing infrastructure already in place.

4. Diplomatic Leverage (Weight: 3)

Countries that proactively engage with the Trump administration on trade can secure significant advantages. The UK has taken what British Prime Minister Keir Starmer calls a more "pragmatic" approach, opting not to retaliate against Trump's steel and aluminum tariffs. This diplomatic strategy has already led to more favorable treatment compared to the EU.

5. Economic Incentives (Weight: 3)

Some governments are using the trade war as an opportunity to attract businesses with unprecedented incentives. Malaysia, for instance, provides investment and tax incentives to high-technology companies and other innovative sectors, according to research from Acclime.

6-7. Market Growth and Operational Feasibility (Weight: 2-3)

These traditional factors still matter, but they're secondary to the new tariff-driven considerations. India, for example, is projected to become the third-largest consumer economy by 2025, while Malaysia's well-developed infrastructure and business-friendly environment make it operationally attractive.

The Three Market Blindspots Everyone Else Is Missing

Let's get specific. Based on my Tariff Arbitrage Matrix, here are three markets that are being completely overlooked - yet offer extraordinary opportunities in 2025's tariff landscape:

BLINDSPOT #1: Malaysia - The Supply Chain Savior

Everyone's rushing to Vietnam, but they're missing Malaysia's incredible potential. With a more modest U.S. tariff rate of 24% compared to Vietnam's 46% and a smaller trade deficit of just $3.1 billion versus Vietnam's $12.4 billion, Malaysia faces significantly lower tariff risk.

According to the Rhodium Group, Malaysia is emerging as a major player in high-tech manufacturing: "Malaysia is now one of the top global exporters of polysilicon, representing 8.3% of global exports in 2023, up from only 0.5% in 2014. A recent surge in announced FDI in the country's solar supply chain could solidify its position."

Malaysian government officials are actively engaging with U.S. authorities rather than threatening retaliation, which could lead to more favorable treatment in future tariff revisions.

BLINDSPOT #2: Brazil - The Tariff-Protected Growth Market

Here's the contrarian take you won't hear elsewhere: Brazil might be the single most overlooked opportunity in international expansion right now.

Why? Brazil actually runs a trade SURPLUS with the United States ($0.4 billion as of February 2025), making it far less likely to face harsh tariff treatment. In fact, Brazil was among the countries Trump initially hit with the 10% tariff - but White House officials have indicated that countries with favorable trade balances might see relief in future negotiations.

While everyone's focusing on Asia, Latin America is quietly becoming a strategic alternative, especially for companies serving the U.S. market. The geographic proximity reduces shipping times and costs, making it a compelling option for time-sensitive products.

BLINDSPOT #3: India - The Scale Play

India presents a unique case - while it faces a 27% tariff rate, its enormous domestic market makes it less dependent on U.S. exports than smaller economies like Vietnam or Thailand.

According to the World Bank, India's economy is projected to grow at 7.5% in 2025, making it one of the fastest-growing major economies globally. As India continues its ascent, it's forecast to replace Japan as the fourth-largest economy by 2026 and surpass Germany by 2029.

The recent trade deficit with the U.S. stands at $5.6 billion - significant but far smaller than Vietnam's $12.4 billion. Moreover, India's strategic importance in the Indo-Pacific region gives it unique diplomatic leverage that could translate to favorable trade terms.

The Market Selection Decision Tree

To make this actionable, here's a simple decision tree for selecting your next market in the current tariff environment:

1. What's your ultimate customer market?

   • If primarily U.S.: Prioritize countries with small/favorable trade balances with the U.S.

   • If primarily EU/Global: Look for countries with extensive free trade agreement networks

2. What's your product complexity and value?

   • High-tech/High-value: Malaysia, Brazil, India

   • Mid-tech: Thailand, Mexico

   • Low-tech/Labor-intensive: Indonesia, Cambodia

3. What's your timeline?

   • Immediate need (6-12 months): Focus on existing industrial parks with plug-and-play infrastructure

   • Medium-term (1-3 years): Consider emerging industrial zones with better incentives

   • Long-term (3+ years): Look at frontier markets with future potential

4. What's your risk tolerance?

   • Low risk: Established markets with clear regulations (Malaysia, Brazil)

   • Medium risk: Rapidly developing markets (India, Thailand)

   • High risk/High reward: Frontier markets (Cambodia, Bangladesh)

The 3-Hour Market Assessment Hack

Here's something most consultants won't tell you: you can do a preliminary tariff arbitrage assessment in just three hours with these three resources:

1. U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) - For the latest trade deficit numbers by country

2. U.S. Trade Representative website - For current tariff rates by country

3. World Bank "Doing Business" rankings - For operational feasibility metrics

Take an hour on each, and you'll have better market intelligence than 95% of companies doing international expansion.

The Homejoy Warning: Why Demand Isn't Enough

Let me close with a cautionary tale that perfectly illustrates why traditional market selection factors - like demand - aren't enough in today's environment.

Homejoy, a Y Combinator-backed on-demand cleaning service, raised $38 million and expanded to the UK in 2014. On paper, the UK had strong demand for their service.

But they made a fatal mistake: they confused interest with profitable demand.

Their data showed that people who used discount coupons on Groupon never converted to full-price customers. They were burning cash on customer acquisition without building sustainable revenue.

By 2015, Homejoy was dead.

The lesson is clear: in trade war conditions, market selection isn't just about where your product is wanted - it's about where your business can be profitable despite tariffs, trade tensions, and economic volatility.

Your 48-Hour Action Plan

Here's what to do in the next 48 hours:

1. Calculate your tariff bleeding - Run the numbers on exactly how much margin you're losing to tariffs under your current setup.

2. Run the Tariff Arbitrage Matrix - Score at least three potential markets using the framework above.

3. Connect with local partners - Skip the general industry associations and call that supplier contact you met at the last trade show – get the unfiltered reality.

4. Challenge your market biases - Be willing to consider markets you previously dismissed based on pre-tariff logic.

What's Coming Next

In Part 3 of this series, I'll be diving into the compliance maze - the regulatory considerations that can make or break your international expansion.

But here's the preview: just like with market selection, the trade war has completely reshuffled the regulatory landscape, creating hidden opportunities for operators who know where to look.

Until then, remember: while everyone else is following the herd to Vietnam, the biggest opportunities right now are found by looking where everyone else isn't.

The tariff reshuffling isn't a threat - it's the greatest market arbitrage opportunity of the decade.

P.S. Let me know what you thought of today’s piece! Reply to this email or tell me here!

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