⚙️ Hi Operator,

Something different this week: I'm launching a four-part series on what might be your biggest operational opportunity of 2025—aggressive international expansion during Trump's tariff tsunami.

While the markets wiped out $6 trillion in four days, I discovered the smartest COOs are quietly securing advantages their competitors won't recover from for years.

Case in point: when Samsung expanded into Vietnam during the first tariff wave, they locked in manufacturing capacity that now produces 60% of their global phones.

One Series A fintech I spoke with last week secured partnership terms they "couldn't have dreamed of" three months ago, projecting 22% margin improvement by Q3.

The opportunity window is narrowing. This four-part playbook shows exactly how to capitalize while everyone else waits for certainty that won't come.

Let me know if this deeper format works for you—now let's dive in.

- Rameel 

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How to Profit from Trump's Tariffs While Everyone Else Panics

Inspired by 18+ COO’s convos in 3 weeks

While everyone else retreats, smart operators are about to make a killing

Have you seen what's happening in the markets? CEOs putting international plans on ice, stock prices in freefall, and Jamie Dimon just upgraded his recession odds to 60% according to Reuters as Trump's sweeping tariffs fed expectations for a global downturn and sharp price hikes for swathes of goods in the world's biggest consumer market.

Why?

Because Trump just unleashed the most aggressive tariff policy in modern history - a 10% baseline on nearly everything with rates up to 145% for China. The effective average tariff rate is now at 24% - the highest since 1903, according to analysis from Yale University even with Trump's 90-day pause on country-by-country duties.

The result has been a market wipeout that erased nearly $6 trillion in value in just four days as Trump's tariffs had sparked a days-long selloff that erased trillions of dollars from global stocks and pressured U.S. Treasury bonds and the dollar, which form the backbone of the global financial system.

And that's exactly why this is the most profitable international expansion opportunity you'll see this decade.

Let me explain what the panicking masses are missing - and how operators like you can capitalize on it while others cower.

The Countercyclical Advantage: Why Expansion During Trade Uncertainty Works

Here's what the data shows that most people miss: Economic uncertainty and trade wars actually create enormous opportunities for companies with the right strategy.

Consider this: According to a Harvard Business Review study of Chinese suppliers during the first Trump tariff period, not all companies were affected equally: firms that were more innovative or more socially responsible were more likely to retain their U.S. buyers even during peak trade tensions.

The math is simple but powerful:

1. When your competitors retreat, acquisition costs plummet

2. Premium talent suddenly becomes available

3. Governments desperate for investment offer incentives they'd never consider in boom times

4. First-mover advantages compound exponentially

The companies that dominate global markets today didn't get there by waiting for perfect conditions.

They moved precisely when everyone else froze.

Look at the evidence:

• Samsung aggressively expanded into Vietnam after the first Trump tariffs hit China. Since the South Korean conglomerate entered Vietnam in 1989, it has poured billions of dollars into expanding its global manufacturing footprint beyond China. Today, about 60% of the 220 million phones Samsung sells each year globally are made in Vietnam, making them Vietnam's largest foreign investor and exporter.

• Netflix launched its international expansion in 2010 - just as the world was reeling from the 2008 financial crisis. According to Seeking Alpha, while the S&P 500 dropped 43% from February 2008 to February 2009, Netflix stock rose 30% as the company continued acquiring subscribers even during economic turmoil. By 2017, they operated in over 190 countries, with today's international subscribers far exceeding domestic ones.

These aren't isolated examples. They represent a pattern that smart operators have recognized throughout history.

The 48-Hour Advantage: Three Actions to Take Before Your Competitors Wake Up

While others are frozen with indecision, here are three immediate moves to make in the next 48 hours:

1. Harvest retreat signals – Set up alerts for international job postings from your top 3 competitors. When you see them pulling back on hiring in key markets, that's your signal to accelerate. According to TIME magazine, businesses across the U.S. are pulling back on spending amid President Trump's trade war and abrupt reversals. Warner Bros. Discovery has reportedly advised staff to cancel all "non-business critical" travel due to economic uncertainty.

2. Target markets with falling investment – Contact manufacturers in markets where your competitors are reducing orders due to tariff concerns. According to JP Morgan, trade policy uncertainty should weigh on activity growth, particularly for capital spending. This creates immediate supply chain opportunities for those willing to move while others hesitate.

3. Lock in partnership terms now – The most valuable asset during economic uncertainty is stability. International partners who were playing hardball last month are now desperate for reliable U.S. relationships. The Federation of Independent Businesses noted that small-business optimism declined in March, creating leverage for those ready to commit while others wait.

These aren't theoretical tactics. They're the exact moves being made right now by operators who understand that waiting for certainty means missing the opportunity entirely.

The Three Markets Everyone Else Is Wrong About

Forget conventional wisdom on international expansion targets. The tariff landscape has completely reshuffled the board.

Mexico: Despite the 25% border tariffs, Mexico becomes MORE attractive for long-term positioning, not less. According to Reuters, Canada and Mexico, the largest U.S. trading partners, were not hit with targeted tariffs on Wednesday, but they already face 25% tariffs on many goods. This complex situation actually creates opportunities for companies ready to navigate the uncertainty.

Vietnam: Everyone assumes Vietnam is the obvious alternative to China, but according to CNBC, Vietnam will face a more challenging path to reach a deal with Washington than others in Asia due to its large trade surplus. The new tariffs announced by Trump could slash Vietnam's total goods exports by as much as 40% this year. The smarter play may be countries with smaller U.S. trade surpluses.

Europe: While the EU faces a 20% tariff rate, according to Charles Schwab analysis, EU goods exports to the U.S. account for only 3.5% of EU GDP, limiting the economic impact. Meanwhile, Germany has already approved a big defense spending and public investment package above 1% of GDP, potentially offsetting the tariff impact and creating growth opportunities.

The true cost of waiting? A case study from the first Trump administration shows that companies who delayed international expansion watched their customer acquisition costs rise dramatically once they finally entered markets where competitors had already established dominance during uncertainty.

The Career-Defining Moment Most Operators Will Miss

Let's make this personal.

Imagine walking into your board meeting six months from now with international revenue climbing while your competitors are still waiting for "certainty" that will never come.

That's not just a good business move. That's the kind of career-defining decision that separates exceptional operators from the merely competent.

On the flip side, consider what happened with Netflix. The company faced a critical choice during the 2008 financial crisis - retreat or expand.

They chose expansion, and by 2011, the firm began its expansion to 43 countries and territories in Latin America and the Caribbean. When they announced their international expansion plans, Netflix's share price surged by 8%, taking it to record levels.

This isn't reckless optimism - it's calculated opportunism based on how markets actually work rather than how we wish they worked.

The Expansion Readiness Scorecard: Do You Have What It Takes?

Before you make your move, let's make sure you're actually ready. I've distilled this into 8 crucial questions, weighted by importance:

Scoring guide:

• 100-125: Ready for aggressive expansion

• 75-99: Ready with caution and targeted approach

• 50-74: Need significant preparation in key areas

• Below 50: Focus on domestic growth for now

Let's break down exactly what each of these factors means:

1. Product-Market Fit: The Foundation Everything Else Builds On

Google seemed unstoppable everywhere - until China, where they failed spectacularly because they couldn't adapt to what the market actually wanted.

The brutal truth is that your domestic success means nothing if your product doesn't resonate internationally.

Contrast Google's failure with Netflix's careful approach. Netflix did not try to enter all markets at once. Rather, it carefully selected its initial adjacent markets in terms of geography and cultural distance, starting with Canada in 2010 before gradually expanding to more culturally distant markets.

The uncomfortable question: Does your product solve a universal need, or is its appeal specific to your home market?

2. Market Validation: The Money Question

This isn't just about whether people want your product - it's about whether they'll pay for it at full price.

Remember Homejoy? Y Combinator's fastest-growing startup in 2012 raised $38 million and pushed into the UK. Their fatal error? According to Medium, they offered first-time cleaning discounts on sites like Groupon, but their internal data showed that people who used the coupons never availed of Homejoy's service again.

By 2015, they were dead.

The uncomfortable question: Do you have actual evidence (not assumptions) that customers will pay full price in your target markets?

3. Financial Readiness: The Brutal Math

Here's an equation most operators get wrong: International expansion costs more than you think, and revenue comes slower than you expect.

Fab.com had everything: $330 million in funding, a $1 billion valuation, and 10 million users. They expanded aggressively across Europe, even acquiring companies to accelerate growth.

By 2013, they were burning cash faster than they could raise it. By 2015, they were dead.

The uncomfortable question: If your international revenue comes in 50% below projections for 18 months straight, will you still have enough runway to succeed?

4-8. The Operational Factors

I'll cover the remaining factors in depth in the upcoming parts of this series, but here's what you need to know now:

• Operational Readiness: 88% of customers abandon brands after just two bad experiences - and international customers are even less forgiving

• Compliance Readiness: According to research from Forbes, non-compliance costs businesses an average of $14 million, while compliance costs average $5.47 million - do the math

• Technical Readiness: 40% of visitors abandon websites that load in over 3 seconds - and that threshold is even lower internationally

• Hiring Readiness: According to a recent study, 3 out of 4 employers worldwide struggle with recruiting people, especially in IT and data roles

• Cultural Readiness: 48% of successful global companies now develop a "global mindset" from day one

The Human Side of Contrarian Expansion

Let's address the elephant in the room: expanding during uncertainty isn't just a business challenge - it's a human one.

Your team will have legitimate concerns about expanding when headlines scream recession. Your board might question your judgment when consumer sentiment has fallen for months straight.

The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index dropped to 50.8 this month from 57 in April, marking the fourth straight monthly decline. As the report noted, "This decline was pervasive and unanimous across age, income, education, geographic region and political affiliation."

The companies that succeed internationally don't just have the right strategy - they have leaders who can bring their organizations along on the journey.

Consider these approaches:

• Frame expansion as defensive positioning, not just opportunistic growth

• Create small cross-functional "expansion pods" rather than asking entire departments to split focus

• Develop clear trigger-based decision trees so teams understand when to accelerate and when to pause

• Establish direct communication channels between international and domestic teams to prevent silos

Remember: Culture doesn't scale automatically. The values that made you successful domestically need intentional translation to work internationally.

What's Next: Your International Expansion Roadmap

This is just the beginning. Over the next three weeks, I'll be sharing the exact playbook you need to capitalize on this moment:

Part 2: The Tariff Arbitrage Matrix - Which markets become MORE attractive during trade tensions and exactly how to evaluate them

Part 3: Beyond Tariffs - The regulatory advantages hidden in trade uncertainty and how to navigate the compliance maze

Part 4: The Talent Opportunity - Building global teams while competitors retreat, including compensation structures that actually work

For now, your action steps are clear:

1. Complete your Expansion Readiness Scorecard above

2. Implement the 48-Hour Advantage tactics immediately

3. Reassess which markets you're targeting based on the new tariff landscape

According to research published by the PMC National Library of Medicine, tariff increases are associated with an economically and statistically sizeable and persistent decline in output growth, creating fear in markets and paralysis among competitors. But for operators who understand the opportunity, this is the moment to make your move.

While others see tariffs as a threat, you now see the opportunity hidden in plain sight.

See you next week with your market selection playbook.

P.S. Let me know what you thought of today’s piece! Reply to this email or tell me here!

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