Decode Your Gut Feeling

Your gut is lying to you

Insight from ExcelDemy

"Let's trust my gut on this one."

Every time I hear these words in a meeting, I watch thousands of dollars evaporate. Not because feelings are wrong - they're just impossible to defend, explain, or improve.

Your intuition is valuable—it's the distillation of years of experience. But it's also vulnerable to today's mood, yesterday's lunch, and last week's budget pressure.

What if you could capture that experience in a framework immune to office politics and bad coffee?

That's where the decision matrix comes in.

Think of it as a translator that converts gut feelings into defendable decisions. When someone asks "Why this vendor?" you'll have a better answer than "It felt right."

The concept is straightforward: list what matters, decide how much it matters, score each option, and let multiplication do the rest.

No feelings. No politics. Just numbers indicating the best choice.

Step 1: Name your decision

Write down exactly what you're deciding. Not "vendor selection" - be specific: "Select primary supplier for Q1 2025 circuit board manufacturing from shortlist of three vendors."

Clear decisions lead to clear criteria.

Now comes the fun part. Open a spreadsheet and list every factor that could make or break your decision.

Step 2: Weight what matters

Open a spreadsheet. List every factor influencing your decision.

Think of weights as your budget - you've got 100 percentage points to spend. A typical supplier decision might break down like this:

• Cost: 40% (Your CFO will thank you)

• Quality: 30% (Recalls are expensive)

• Reliability: 30% (Deadlines matter)

Pro tip: If your weights don't add up to 100%, your math will be meaningless. Double-check your numbers.

Step 3: Score ruthlessly

Time to get brutal. Rate each option from 1 to 5 on your criteria. This isn't the time for optimism. Here's your scale:

1: Deal-breaker

2: Major concerns

3: Acceptable

4: Strong

5: Exceptional

Stick to whole numbers. Every "well, maybe..." or "what if..." weakens your analysis.

Step 4: Let math decide

Here's where the magic happens. Multiply each score by its weight, add those weighted scores, and boom – you've got your winner.

Here's what it looks like in practice:

Look at those numbers. Supplier A wins by 0.1 points. In a gut-feeling world, you'd call that a tie. In data-driven decision making, it's a clear winner.

"But wait..." (Yeah, I hear you)

I know what you're thinking. "What if I don't have perfect data?" or "What if I miss an important factor?"

Totally fair. This method isn't about achieving perfection. It's about making your thinking visible and systematic.

Even if your weights aren't perfect or your scores feel approximate, you're still miles ahead of pure gut instinct.

Why? Because you can see, adjust, and defend your reasoning, which you can't do with a hunch.

The hard truth about gut feelings

Look, intuition isn't worthless. That gut feeling you have comes from years of experience. But it's also shaped by whether you slept well last night, that argument you had with your colleague, or simply who speaks the loudest in meetings.

I've learned this the hard way.

Next time you're staring down a tough decision, skip the coin flip and open a spreadsheet instead. The math might feel cold at first, but trust me - your future self will thank you when those results hit the bottom line.